According to analyst Rager, the length of Bitcoin bear cycles in 2014 and 2018 shows that BTC has a long way to go before bottoming out.
A prominent strategist is looking at BTC’s past bear markets to predict the end of the current downtrend.
“The more we look at the previous BTC price history, the more we see that this is not the bottom. After 190 days from all-time high, Bitcoin still has 150 to 200 days left until bottoming in the last few cycles (red box). If time is an indicator, maybe 6 to 8 months left.”
As for price, Rager says that he is tracking the 200-week moving average (MA), which he says helped Bitcoin bounce during the 2014 and 2018 downtrends.
“If Bitcoin price drops and bounces at the 200-week MA like previous bear markets – consider that a good thing.
It will only be down -68% from the high. Previous bear markets -84% + multiple pullbacks.
A pullback of -84% in this bear market will push BTC to almost $11,000.”
In the short term, Rager believes that BTC will continue to reflect strength or weakness in the US equity market.
“It’s a waste of time to stare at the BTC chart when you should just be looking at the SPX chart.
Clear refusal – good times.
Expect the usual nasty weekend for Bitcoin, with limited upside (fakeout) until stocks reverse.”
Bitcoin is trading for $30,037 at press time.